Monday, October 25, 2004

the gallop "poll"

this is from

In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll published Monday, President Bush has a five percentage point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters -- 51 percent saying they would back Bush, and 46 percent expressing support for Kerry. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points meaning the race for the White House is still very tight.

this is really good news, and here's why. the gallop polling organization has been consistently polling almost sixty percent registered republicans in their polls. earlier this month (last week maybe?) they had bush up by nine points, when in reality every other poll had them tied. and now gallop says bush's lead is down to five points, which ostensibly means kerry is ahead. of course you have to factor in the margin of error, alignment of the planets and other crap, but really it's a good sign.

also take into account the record number of new registrants this year (a huge amount, especially in ohio and florida), and the fact that first-time voters usually vote for the challenger 2 to 1. again, good sign.

that's my little politico-analysis for the day.

No comments: